There are several different adoption curves you can use to predict how big the EV market will be over the coming decades. When you look at these adoption curves together (see graph) there’s quite a large variance between them.
Through our work with local authorities, the National Grid Future Energy Scenarios Consumer Transformation curve has been consistently chosen as the most closely related to strategy and policy initiatives.
The National Grid use an enormous amount of data to make these predictions with Distribution Network Operators taking these to create a more localised versions for their networks. We’ve seen these localised versions shared with local authorities too.
Examples of EV adoption curves avaliable
Looking at National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios Consumer Transformation adoption curve, 36% of vehicles on the road will be BEV by 2030, which equates to almost 13 million vehicles.
| Year | % BEVs on the road | Number of BEVs on the road |
| 2025 | 9% | 3,240,000* |
| 2030 | 36% | 12,960,000* |
*based on 36 million vehicles on road
The BEVs on the road figure is based on the assumption of like for like replacement of vehicles. Of course, this is an undesirable outcome as authorities are looking to improve public transport utilisation so these figures probably won’t be accurate for 2030.
National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios Consumer Transformation EV adoption curve
Do council EV infrastructure plans match this 7:1 ratio?