Forecasting is perilous, especially when we’re looking at new technology that the mainstream hasn’t worked out yet.
Broadly speaking, dependence on the public charging network is driven by whether drivers can park off-street, and how far they drive.
If a household has space to park their vehicle off-street, they’ll probably install their own EV charger and only use the public network on longer trips. If they don’t have access to a drive, they’ll have to use public chargers to top up their batteries.
People who drive more will need to charge their vehicles more frequently. Clearly what’s classed as high mileage is an open question but, for this example, we used over 15,000 miles per year (around 289 miles per week ). If an EV has a range of 200 miles, then this means charging 2-3 times a week to be secure, creating a dependency on nearby, available, and low-cost charging.
People who drive the UK average of 5,200 miles per year (around 100 miles per week) will only need to charge once a fortnight with a 200-mile range EV. This then opens up a myriad of different destination charging options. For example, supermarkets, retail parks, gyms, EV forecourts and hubs, and cinemas. At least one of these is likely to be visited during that fortnight.
Let’s use an example area to explore the distribution of these different drivers. Will we have a significant population of high mileage EVs hammering the network? Or, will there be a smaller number of vehicles that would benefit from a more focussed approach?
